According to @QCompounding, historical evidence in J.P. Morgan’s Guide to the Markets shows starting equity valuations have strong explanatory power for subsequent 10-year returns but weak predictive power for 1-year outcomes. Source: J.P. Morgan Guide to the Markets. For trading, use valuation metrics like S&P 500 forward P/E and Shiller CAPE to set long-horizon return expectations and adjust strategic allocation, rather than to time short-term entries and exits. Source: J.P. Morgan Guide to the Markets. Crypto traders can mirror this by treating on-chain valuation gauges such as BTC’s MVRV and the NVT ratio as cycle indicators rather than daily signals. Source: Glassnode Insights.